According to MCA’s latest Food To Go report, the market was valued at £20.2bn in 2015, comprising nearly a quarter of all consumer eating out spend. It was set to reach a growth rate of 5.7% in 2015, compared with 2.8% for the total eating out market.
The market benefits from key consumer trends around busier lifestyles, growing informality, less structured eating patterns, convenience and an enduring appetite for lower ticket purchases. The range and quality of food to go products is also improving, driven by higher consumer expectations and supplier innovation. However, it is a fragmented market with a diverse set of operators; the leading 10 brands by turnover only holding a combined 33% market share.
Customers purchase food to go on a regular basis, therefore variety and healthier eating are key consumer needs. Low fat, vegetarian and gluten-free products are also emerging as a result of the megatrend of healthier eating.
One would like to think that the report’s findings played some part in LDC and Whitbread’s decisions to invest in Vital Ingredient and Pure – Made for You. However, healthy food-to-go concepts are having an extended moment, led by one of the first wave of new-breed operators, Leon. A second wave featuring more product choice, greater use of technology and an eye on breaking out of not just their City heartland, but across the capital and beyond.
In the case of Vital, the search for a new backer had been over 18 months in the making, with relations between the management team and former backer Paul Oberschneider, the American-Estonian real estate entrepreneur, thought to have become strained. Indeed, at one point I understand a merger with rival Tossed was brought to the table, but fell by the way side with the issue of who would lead the enlarged business being one sticking point.
With LDC investing over £8m into the Alex Heynes-founded business alongside a further £4m of funding from Santander, it looks well set to make good on its ambition to double its 17-strong estate over the next three year. I understand that a pipeline is in place for at least six new openings this year, and with the Bristol-based office of LDC leading the new investment, it would not be a surprise to see any move outside the capital aimed along the M4 corridor first. Long term, managing director Paolo Peretti believes the company could eventually grow its estate to up to 70 sites across the UK, including c50 within London.
Whitbread’s acquisition of a 49% stake in the eight-strong Pure, which has come through its own troubled past, including an administration process as Pure California, for £6.8m, with the option to acquire the remaining 51% stake within the next five years, mirrors Fuller’s similar investment in pizza and cider concept, The Stable. It is hoped that Whitbread will be as similarly as good a partner as Fuller’s has so far been for the Richard and Nikki Cooper-led business. Pure’s management team led by Spencer Craig will be very much left to their own devices but with the added benefit of Whitbread’s extensive property team behind them.
The eight-strong company will open its first site in partnership with Whitbread last week at 179 Camden High Street, coincidentally next door to a Costa. Craig, who said that Pure would continue to expand at a considered rate, with plans to open three to four sites a year and expansion in London remaining its main focus, admitted that the company had received approached from private equity over the last 18 months, but that Whitbread felt like the right fit to help take the business forward. It would be a surprise if Whitbread didn’t look to make further strategic moves into the sector.
It has already delved into the food-to-go sector to enhance its food offer, with its growing and successful partnership with Chop’d, just under 20 Costa sites now stocking the Eddie Holmes-led brand’s products, with more set to follow. Chop’d and Leon are also leading the way in taking healthy, food-to-go out of the capital, with both making their regional debuts over the last 18 months, with more regional outposts set to follow, and in Leon’s case an international debut in Holland later this year, to be followed by its first foray into the US, with a site in Orlando set to come online next summer.
In terms of other sector players, Tossed and Abokado have continued to strengthen both their respective estates and operations teams, with the former linking up with Welcome Break on UK roadsides. It is thought that the Mark Lilley-led, Kings Park Capital-backed latter, which will have 27 sites opened in the capital by July, has set the 30-unuit mark as a line in the sand regarding starting to review its options. Speculation is growing that its Kings Park Capital stablemate Fuel Juice Bars, the smoothie and juice bar concept, which recently reported like-for-like sales up 5.5% for its first quarter and three new sites to take its estate to 30, may start its own process before that point.
Early adopter, POD, remains in a state of flux after what founder Tim Hall called “a turbulent year for the group”. The 22-strong company’s new management team key challenge will to impart some new momentum in the business. Like Chop’d, it is in the early stages of a link up with a bigger company, in this respect Starbucks, with the latter housing the former’s offer in 10 of its sites. As with Costa and Chop’d you would imagine that at some point there might be talks between POD and Starbucks regarding taking their relationship further in terms of investment, depending on the continued success of the current link ups. The appointment earlier this year of Kate Skerritt, co-founder of POD, to the role of director of food EMEA at the coffee giant, is an interesting sidebar to this possibility.
Will more follow Whitbread’s lead or indeed Azzurri Group’s with Coco di Mama in investing a younger brother brand in a more dynamic marketplace? I would be amazed if conversations around new partnerships/joint ventures are not already taking place. However, anyone looking to go down that route should heed the problems faced by contract caterer CH&Co, who initially acquired a stake in the then 23-strong Apostrophe café chain in 2012, and purchased the remaining stake in 2014. Since then the founder and chief executive Amir Chen has left, followed by a further chief executive and managing director, whilst the brand has quietly closed a number of sites. As with any healthy diet, for investors and businesses looking to enter the market, making the right choices will be key.
