Health Secretary John Reid sent a £300m shiver through the pub, drink and tobacco industries with his crusade for a healthier Britain, reports The Business.
That was the amount knocked off the value of shares in those sectors, with pub groups particularly badly hit by moves to ban smoking.
But analysts at Morgan Stanley point out that non-smokers outnumber smokers by three to one.
And they believe that restaurants and pub/restaurants will eventually benefit by attracting more non-smokers.
Meanwhile pubs that don't serve food at all could boost trade by becoming "smoking speakeasies".
Losing out will be those pubs in the middle, who just offer some food.
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein predicts that JD Wetherspoon, Regent Inns and Luminar will suffer because their estates consist of mainly town centre pubs.
Chains like Greene-King, Mitchells & Butlers and Wolverhampton & Dudley are likely to be cushioned by their residential locations and food offerings.
The Sunday Times forecasts that the new rules will result in most pubs becoming "smoking, drink-only boozers, a rather unintended consequence".
The British Beer & Pub Association describes this as "a case of Hobson's choice", while Ted Tuppen, chief executive of Enterprise Inns, says "good village pubs" will be hit.
Many, it is feared, could be forced to close.
There are also, adds The Sunday Times, several grey areas.
It asks whether smoking would be allowed in pubs selling pre-packed sandwiches – yet barred in those that make their own on the premises.
Mitchells & Butlers chief executive officer Tim Clarke says he welcomes "two aspects" of the white paper.
One is the Government's "clear commitment to a wide consultation process".
The other is the four-year period before the final parts are implemented.
The Business 21/11/04 page 10
The Sunday Times 21/11/04 (Business) page 3.13
The Observer 21/11/04 (Business) page 2
