Peel Hunt on 2021: A year of two halves

Q1 is traditionally the quietest quarter in licensed retail; it is when tenants are most likely to hand back the keys. Sadly, without any additional government support and with the rent moratorium ending in March (with 15 months of rent due in some cases), many private companies could run out of liquidity. Many sources have suggested a 20-30% supply reduction. We are more optimistic than this due to corporate activity. The speed and direction of capital reallocation will be critical to this, in our view.