Management were quite open at their FY results a few weeks ago that it was disappointed with FY19 trading and would be working hard to remedy it in FY20. It will be interesting to see if they can deliver better YoY growth this Christmas particularly given its comp is easier than peers.
The group did not reveal LFL’s when it reported in mid-November but noted they were in positive territory for the first 7 weeks. Marston’s only delivered +1.4% LFL growth in the first 16 weeks of FY19 and +5.7% lfl growth over the key two week Christmas period last year so logic would suggest that this should be a better update than peers, but we will wait for confirmation of this given a period of underperformance. For H1 we forecast just under 1.5% LFL growth for pubs.
View - We remain cautious on the prospects for Marston’s and will look for evidence of LFL growth at least inline with market performance for a period before becoming more constructive on the name.
Precis
Marston’s Christmas trading statement
Management were quite open at their FY results a few weeks ago that it was disappointed with FY19 trading and would be working hard to remedy it in FY20. It will be interesting to see if they can deliver better YoY growth this Christmas particularly given its comp is easier than peers.
